What are the chances of an individual getting the Big Virus (COVID-19) ?

First off; I don’t want to downplay the importance of taking sensible precautions to prevent spreading or getting the novel coronavirus. The measures that we are putting in place all across the globe are to prevent its exponential spread, i’m pretty sure, and not so much as preventing people from getting it. Sure, no one wants to get it, but no one wants to get the cold or flu either but it’s pretty much expected that people will get it. Yes, and this one can kill people of certain factors…I think it’s because the word “die” is attached to this sickness that there is such a global panic, and not so much that it really just is another germ that we’re dealing with, it just so happens that we don’t have a vaccine for this germ, and really when you think about it, the earth is filled with potentialities of crazy diseases coming up at any time, so yes while I might be anxious and I indeed have an emotional reaction to the situation, I should not really be astounded that the novel coronavirus has occurred. As well, any blame that anyone would want to put anywhere for its arrival, I think is utterly located in that person’s fear and not in any actuality of presence or cause. 

Second:

From where I live…

I was just pondering what the chances are that I could get it?

And I googled many variations of the same question, and I found that no one has really given us a probability measure of whether or not a single person could get it.

There is a calculator somewhere out there that I found that I’m not putting a link to because I’m lazy which you put in the various variables of your situation and it will calculate a probability, but of you dying from it.

It is interesting that we have not heard any statistics about the chance of you getting it.

And then I was just thinking kind of really rationally about it for a minute.

And this is because I encountered some friends who got particularly emotional about the situation, very anxious, we’re crying, were expressing all sorts of, what we would have to really consider is valid over worry, distorted thinking in a way. Of course, I can’t discount with a good heart the validity in the panic that these people came upon or are coming up on still. I just kind of had to be there for them. discounting their concerns really just tended to make them think of something else about it to worry about even more. And these are not ignorant people, they’re not fanatics; they are just regular everyday intelligent people caught in a situation where they feel generally helpless and out of touch. 

And so I was just thinking about Vegas, Las Vegas, and gambling.

Think about the game roulette. The odds of betting on a single number and winning is 37 to 1. 

If any of you have ever gambled or played roulette, how often do you place a bet on a single number and actually win?

Pretty much never.

Even if I look at that calculator I mentioned earlier in this post, and it says something about a healthy 25-year-old having something like 1: 7000 chances of dying from this disease. Ok. So I’m not a 25-year-old even though I’m pretty healthy.

But even so; let’s say my chances were one and 1000 of dying from this disease. And let’s say extrapolate this possibility of dying from it even a third of that say of getting the disease, such that I would have maybe 1: 250 a chance of catching the coronavirus.

I think of all the times I’ve been to Las Vegas and played roulette; have I ever won on a single place bet? Even after hours of standing there playing? And the odds of me winning is 1: 37.

Here I am taking all these precautions in my life to avoid contracting a virus that maybe I have 1:200 chance of getting and maybe 1:3000 chance of dying from. I’d say that with all these precautions I’m even making it more difficult for me to even contract it.

It’s kind of like I’m placing a single number bet and then doing something to the game to help me not win even more. Lol. I’m not sure how I would do that in a game of roulette, but the analogy I think is making a certain amount of sense. 😁

So I hope that helps some of you people that may be having a very difficult time in these days. 

💟

. x

Author: landzek

My name is Lance Kair, a philosopher, a counselor and a musician who is being questioned.

14 thoughts on “What are the chances of an individual getting the Big Virus (COVID-19) ?”

  1. I am not sure about the ratio of 1:200 for getting it because it seems to move faster. And getting it depends on many factors: immunity, the number of people in one place, indoor or outdoor, how many amongst them are infected and so on. But nice try. Thank you for sharing

    1. Maybe 1:7000 then My point is even if I played 4 numbers. At. 8:1 chance. I still lose almost all the time. And I’m saying that with all the precaution that everyone is taking a chance of getting a super low. Staff bacteria‘s staff is in and on pretty much everything we touch and yet we rarely get it even with an open cut.

      It’s not that we should be concerned, I’m saying that people are basing their activity off of more upon anxiety and a distortion of the reality of the matter.

      1. I work in a hospital. So. Some of the staff were very worried. And actually I think in general, while it is v contagious. The over concern has to do with dying. Bc the actual getting of it is no more chance than any other virus. It’s just that the giving of it has a greater potential. There’s a difference. That’s why we do these precautions. Not bc of its spreadability. We can’t do much about that. But we can do something about the get-ability.

        There is nothing different about this contagion really than any other : The world is filled with deadly and poisonous bacteria and viruses in contagion. We live amongst them all the time. But there just has not been a vector into our bodies with m

      2. …with most of them yet. But the potential is equal at all times that any one could arise that we have little defense against.

      3. The lack of responsibility from governments toward their people, their constant lying and the illusion that usa or any other powerful state can handle corona is total bullshit. All of a sudden states are giving money to people, finding shelter to homeless, financing medical researches. Few weeks ago all this was not possible. And the scariest thing to our governments is that China handled the virus.
        After corona there will be a different world

      4. We are in transition. Our relationship with the world is changing. People don’t like transition.

        I’m always checking in with my fellow coworkers on a level beneath just our workflow of how they’re doing, just real quickly usually, but authentically.

        And then this morning I thought of Maylynno!

        How are you holding up Professor Maylynne?

      5. Thank you for your kind thought!
        I am glad to be busy so staying home feels less heavy. How are you doing?
        It is true that we are in a big transition, but I don’t know for how long!

    2. Besides, probability is pretty much a nonsensical formulation of reality. If something happens then it happened 100%, the probability of it happen when it happens is 100% everything collapses. If it doesn’t happen the probability totally failed and was utterly meaningless because the chance was that it happened was zero. There is nothing in between that, it is utterly just a figment of imagination most likely accompanied by emotional anticipation of what might be the case.

      But even aside from that, most people of the chances of getting it are extremely low. And then everyone’s taking all these precautions. The point I’m making is that I am in countering many people who are extremely nervous and worried. And it’s useless to tell them that they don’t need to be.forthemost part.

      1. I’m not saying not be worried or cautious. I’m saying be real. And yes. Maybe in other areas it is more desperate. Yes. You’re right.

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